March Best Opportunities

A deeper dive into practice routines to improve

The quantity and quality of practice determines the path to excellence.

Reaching a high level of skill involves a huge time commitment to internalise patterns, strengthen neural pathways, and gain deep expertise. This can only be achieved through practice. However, it is the nature of this practice that is so important. Staring at screens all day is not making the boat go faster.

As Anders Ericsson states,

expert practice is different. It entails considerable, specific, and sustained effort to do something you can’t do well - or even at all. Research across domains shows that it is only by working at what you can’t do that you turn into the expert you want to become.

From this, he coined the now infamous phrase “deliberate practice” to distinguish it from what most of us get up to.

This opens up a really interesting question for traders- how best to structure practice routines when the markets are closed? How can you effectively recreate conditions of stress that impact decision-making in real time? Where are current systems failing that need to be addressed?

The answers to these questions will be case-dependent and will change given the current level of expertise. However, I do believe there are high-value practices that every short-term trader can instigate Daily:

• A review process targeting a specific goal

• Re-watching tape at key inflection points

• Detailed and specific trade notes to fix shortcomings and identify areas of improvement

• Reverse engineering catalysts to identify blind spots and expand knowledge

• Studying your losing trades and confronting mistakes

• Building tech, data, or a solution to stretch oneself and close the loop

It is not just about working long hours but instead being able to weigh the different tasks and rank them by importance.

In this post, I wanted to build on these points and share some snippets of my trade write-ups, both the good and bad, throughout March. After all, what good is a Substack about trading without showing some trades?! It is specifically important to highlight the limitations and failings, as progress is built upon the foundations of necessary failure.

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MLX 14/3/25

• Catalyst: Alphamin ceases operations at the Bisie tin mine and evacuates personnel due to insurgent militants approaching the site—approx 5% of the global supply. Stock closes -38%.

• What I did: Entered open with the gap and momentum. I reduced 1/3 into the early spike and held the core as per the rules. Sharp reversal back into the open level but HOLDS. From here, I add back the position right side of the V on the turns and hold for trend. Captured 75% of the move to 11 am and captured 93% of the move open to close.

• Key moments: The order book on the open is so strong. 2.2m matches at 62c and 1.6m left on bid. So much protection to 60c. No real offers or resting liquidity until 65c, so great r/r bet. A line of 1.5m prints at 67c at 10:11:23 - this was the short term top and turns lower from here.

• Mistakes: Sizing. The highest EV was size on open and add straight after. The goal was 350k+, but I only got to 250k early. 20% of volume was 400k, so there was sufficient liquidity. My pull-in buy at 66c early was very poor - a block has just printed, and stock turns lower after an explosive move. It now needs time and a wash as the market is long.

• What do I need to improve: Visualise the size I want to hit pre-open. Use algo to automate and commit. Happy with scaled early exits and running core as per the rules.

PDN 21/3/25

• Catalyst: Operations cease due to adverse weather event. The prior day, a block trade of 15m goes through at 660. Market slotted.

• What I did: Joined the gap down given the perceived overhang from the block. Instantly goes to my max % adverse excursion, so I stop 1/2 but the offer refreshes. This is a good r/r spot to hit back out. I then add to my correct size on the true breakdown through lows and range. However, I get complacent when working and do not firm up exit plans. Stock drops 620 bid come 10.50 am, but it can’t hold below. This triggers a sharp squeeze and trap. No auto-stop loaded. The spike extends on the move back above vwap. I cut back into highs but leave a non-planned core in a total bias.

• Key moments: 650 refreshing seller early was great r/r spot to short vs the 660 block. Breaks lows on real volume come 10.30 am. Failure to hold below 620 on increased volume is risk 1 for the downtrend. Stock should never hold back above vwap in a strong downtrend.

• Mistakes: Being complacent when a trade is working. Loss of focus at key inflection point. High shortbase stocks and crowded trades should put you on high alert. No auto-stop loaded.

• What do I need to improve: Accepting price action is the truth. Bring in auto stops above key inflection points. Breakdown through 630s on volume means price should never hold back above 630s meaningfully. This trade should never have become a loser at this point.

JLG 3/3/25

• Catalyst: AFR article that states two private equity firms both made their informal, non-binding interest known to the company last year. Recent huge sell-off on Earnings may make this attractive once more. 9% short.

• What I did: Instantly bought into 260 and above. I didn’t love the content of the article, and I was influenced by the prior earnings sell-off. As a consequence, I started scaling out into the very first bit of strength rather than holding and waiting. Huge shortbase and first mover advantage mean the trade needs TIME to play out.

• Key moments: The best trades go from the start. Strong volume into the 260 lift and clear new buyers on the tape. Book gets fast = market wants in. At 3.27 pm there is a block trade of 500k at 2.75, which was a -2.65% discount from last. This is 20 minutes into the trade, so it's time for high caution. Looks like the article was planted, and someone is happy to now offload.

• Mistakes: I resorted to “see profit, take profit” instead of using my exit rules for this playbook. The minimum holding time is > 10 mins for breaking news. First mover advantage. However, I sold more than 1/3 on the first pop. This is a big NO, irrespective of my feelings on the quality of the catalyst.

• What do I need to improve: Exit management. Wait > 10mins as per my breaking news rules. Late in day, high shortbase, tight range, low end of the range in daily, and 2 bidders mentioned in the article- despite being low quality, there is enough there for a powerful follow-through. Furthermore, I could have gotten to 100k shares in 2 clips of 50k.